Why Randy Orton Will Win (+1000)
Luchador's Pick: Orton Wins by DQ, but doesn't win the WWE Title. Expect a callback to the Cena-Orton No Way Out 2008, except with roles reversed
John Cena is a heavy, heavy favorite for the upcoming Backlash title match, at -5000. With odds like that, why should you pick Randy Orton? The Legend Killer is a solid contrarian pick. Here's why:
Luchador's Pick: Orton wins by Disqualification
According to wrestling site rules (we'll have a longer post of our Jack Tunney Rules later), bettors win when their wrestler wins by disqualification or countout. We are NOT stipulating that Orton has to win the title. He just has to win the match.
Reason #1: The Venue is St. Louis, Missouri, Randy Orton's Hometown
WWE needs to keep this unpredictable. Longtime wrestlers may feel like we've seen this match before, but this is a different set up. Most of the previous matches had Orton as the heel and Cena as the face. This one allows Cena to be the heel and Orton as the heel in his hometown of St. Louis, Missouri. While we've seen mixed reactions when Cena appears, we can expect fans to be behind their hometown hero and to boo Cena. We aren't offering prop bets, but I expect Orton to land an RKO or two before the night is over.
Reason #2: Callback to Previous Match. (WWE Is Fond of Callbacks)
This Cena-Orton finish from No Way Out 2008 has been making the rounds on Twitter. (Thanks @JuicySteen) In the clip, heel Orton hits the referee in order to lose by disqualification, but retains his title. Now that the positions have switched, the thinking goes, we could see Cena doing the exact same thing.
With HHH as the head booker, we've seen a lot of callbacks to previous, historical famous matches. Think of the Summerslam match between Drew McIntyre and CM Punk with Seth Rollins as referee, with Seth Rollins wearing the same referee outfit as Shawn Michaels when he refereed the Summerslam 1997 main event between the Undertaker and Bret "the Hitman" Hart. Here's a clip.
I'd even argue the Cena- Rhodes finish at the last Wrestlemania was a callback to the Wrestlemania VIII Intercontinental title match between Bret Hart and Roddy "Rowdy" Piper. Hart's matches are iconic and these callbacks have solidified his reputation. Thirty-plus years later and wrestlers are still stealing bits from his matches.
This current iteration of WWE is full of nostalgia for halcyon days.
Reason #3: Losing by DQ But Retaining The title is what a Cowardly Heel Would Do
It's what a heel Cena should do. And it may allow the two to work a longer program together on TV and through the next premium live event (PLE).
Winning by DQ makes this a much more even match than the odds suggest. As long-time wrestling bettor @kaponofor3 stated: "I also have to be cognizant that a DQ or countout is technically a win for the other side, which is sneaky and has to take storyline into consideration."
