Cody Rhodes Wins if this is Cena's Last Match (+106)

I originally started writing this blog post thinking Cody Rhodes was going to win, but a few things have changed my mind. The New York Times profile on John Cena and the National Public Radio (NPR) interview with David Shoemaker make me think this is elaborate work and this is not in fact John Cena's last match. Both NYT and NPR have credulously reported that this is Cena's last dance. True kayfabe means you lie through your teeth when speaking with Establishment media outlets.

A New York Times profile titled, "John Cena Confronts His Final Wrestlemania" gives the impression that this is Cena's final match. Cena: "When I get a step slow, I'm out. And I'm a step slow."

The outcome of this match likely hinges on whether this really is John Cena's last match. If this truly is Cena's last match, then tradition states that pro wrestlers “go out on their back” and “put someone over on the way out.” Quora explains this tradition:

"If you think about it in terms of booking. There is very little benefit to a retiring wrestler winning their last match; they aren’t going to wrestle anymore so they don’t need the win and they make whomever they beat look weak."

Ever the traditionalist, John Cena will "do the honors" and lose to Cody Rhodes on the way out. This is traditionally what retiring wrestlers do and Cena has shown a willingness to be a team player and company guy. Note his loss to Austin Theory at Wrestlemania 39 and his incredible record of 650 Make a Wish Foundation meetings with dying children.

Rhodes' Title Run: WWE has made a significant investment in Cody Rhodes. Rhodes got an incredible build up after his return from AEW. He had a two-year chase for the WWE championship. They built upon his family's legacy and the fact that his father Dusty "The American Dream" Rhodes never won the WWE title.

Rhodes' two-year story arc and ability to "finish the story" indicates that this is the guy for the foreseeable future. Even if he's not the champion, WWE sees him as a moneymaker and Wrestlemania headliner for the foreseeable future, just as Hulk Hogan, John Cena, and Roman Reigns were in previous eras.

Rhodes has been a reliable champion during a period of unprecedented success. He has been the right star to manage the post-Vince McMahon transition and is well on his way to becoming a wrestling icon. It's clear he will likely be in the main event picture for the foreseeable picture. It's an open question though whether Rhodes retains his WWE championship or whether he goes back to chasing the title, like he did during Wrestlemanias 39 & 40.

Cena's Last Dance: Cena has already given years of his life to the company and may truly be ready to move on. It makes sense for there to be a "passing the torch" match, where the last big star of the previous era anoints the next big star of the current era. But why this year and not next year?

As a fan, this long anticipated heel turn feels underwhelming after the initial excitement from Elimination Chamber. Since Elimination Chamber, Cena has done three TV appearances and will main event Wrestlemania. TKO/WWE is leaving money on the table if that's it. There is more money to be made from this heel turn. TKO has not squeezed the revenue potential from John Cena's heel turn yet and Cody Rhodes has proven that he's a babyface that fans will cheer for during a title chase.

Precedent: Cena and the Rock wrestled at Wrestlemanias 28 and 29, with Rock winning the first and then Cena winning the return match. WWE traded publicly then and the build up to Wrestlemania 28 was announced a year in advance. Expect a repeat, but this time between Cena and Rhodes trading wins this year and next. Don't be surprised if TKO announces the the Wrestlemania 42 main event match immediately after this one is over.