Time to Play The Game
"Wrestlers and promoters lie, but the numbers don’t."
We’re introducing the WWFTX column, “Time to Play the Game.” Long-time WWE fans will recognize the title as a reference to HHH’s entrance music by Motorhead. (It would be great if HHH enters the booking committee meetings, spits water, and then hands his booking decisions to the writers.) During the course of this column, we will be trying to get into the minds of the booking committee, but with a specific focus on HHH. When in doubt, it's best for the head booker to have final decision-making power. The column will attempt to be as analytical as possible, since we’re actually wagering real money on the outcome of WWE results.
As far as we know, HHH is the head of creative, meaning he is ultimately responsible for match outcomes, but he has input from a team of writers. There is an upcoming Netflix show called Unreal that will supposedly reveal what this dynamic is like. I’m under the assumption the show is a work, so will not actually reveal anything interesting. Otherwise this is the worse breaking kayfabe incident ever, way worse than the Current Call.
Last weekend was a big weekend for wrestling futures. AEW hosted All-In, one of their biggest events in AEW history. WWE ran counter-programming with Saturday Night’s Main Event (SNME) and Evolution, an all-women’s wrestling event.
Over vs Under Results
AEW All-In: 3-2
WWE SNME: 1-2
WWE Evolution 5 - 1 - 1*
SNME had Goldberg’s retirement match, which likely did not entice betters. Tradition dictates that pro wrestlers lose on their way out. So the final odds looked like this. Gunther (-1000) was an easy bet against Goldberg (+500). Note: we’ll have a piece for you later on this bit of conventional wisdom. We know wrestlers are supposed to lose on their way out, but we want to run the numbers. We’ll get back to you on whether this is true or not. Wrestlers and promoters lie, but the numbers don’t.
The run up to WWE’s double-header did not look promising, betting-wise. The writing team was coming off a fairly predictable Night of Champions, in which the favorites won 5-1, with only Solo Sikao winning over Jacob Fatu coming as a surprise. Tip to TKO: if the betting favorites win close to 100% of the time, it’s time to shake things up.
WWE’s Saturday Night Main Event had a more surprising 1-2 outcome, but with a huge asterisk. Seth Rollins was a heavy -1000 favorite going into the event LA Knight (+400). According to The Fed, it appears Rollins injured his knee during the match. LA Knight was forced to improvise and won the match. The Internet wrestling community (IWC) has a large contingent that thinks this is a work. We'll try to think of a way for skeptical fans to wager on this.
Evolution was a more predictable affair, with favorites winnin 5 - 1 - 1*. The asterisk is because Naomi successfully cashed in her Money in the Bank suitcase during the Iyo Skye and Rhea Ripley match, setting up a three way match at Summerslam. Even when WWE is predictable, I appreciate how the existence of the Money in the Bank suitcase adds an element of surprise to any big match. The Summerslam Triple Threat match odds are currently Naomi (-600), Rhea Ripley (+250), and Iyo Sky (+400). Iyo Sky is the biggest underdog in the entire Summerslam.
