Evaluating John Cena's Wrestlemania Odds (-130)
John Cena has already gone Hollywood. TKO has the ability to make his final transition go smoothly.
The main argument for John Cena winning is this is WWE cashing in a nWo style heel run as part of John Cena's farewell tour. John Cena's surprising heel turn at Elimination Chamber got enormous coverage, with clips of little children crying going viral. The problem however, is that he's already left for Hollywood. This has made it difficult for him to have a proper farewell tour.
There is a scenario where it makes sense for Cena to win the strap at Wrestlemania 41 and to carry the company for the next year as a heel.
Financial Incentive: According to pro wrestling conventional wisdom, “The money is always gonna be with the babyface chasing the belt.” Kevin Nash at 4:01 mark on his Kliq This podcast. So one scenario is let Cena win this year and then have Cody Rhodes spend the next year chasing Cena while Cena does his final heel run/farewell tour. This worked well enough for Wrestlemania 39 and 40, with Cena spending a good two years chasing Roman Reigns for the title. So conventional pro wrestling booking indicates this is a good business decision.
Heel Run/Farewell Tour: WWE has been thinking about making Cena a heel for a long time, so there are numerous angles and storylines they can push. There is a creative backlog that they can rely on. Rhodes doesn't need to be the main competition either. During this one-year farewell tour, fans would love to see Cena have matches with some of his best opponents, such as AJ Styles and CM Punk.
17th Championship Title Run: although championship runs are somewhat arbitrary and you can fight over which of Ric Flair's titles count towards his 16 titles, this is a key storyline and a way for the company to repay Cena for his loyal service during the PG Era. Other than the Undertaker's long streak of wins at Wrestlemania, there really aren't that many statistics that fans know of and care about.
Here's an article about Ric Flair's title wins and why some aren't counted. "Flair's list of forgotten title wins is excluded from the record books because they weren't televised, so WWE doesn't count them."
A 17th championship title run would be like a lifetime achievement award and a difficult record for anyone to break.
Cena as an Underdog The main arguments against Cena winning against Cody Rhodes at Wrestlemania 41 are 1) his age and 2) Hollywood career.
Age: At 47 years old, Cena is not the guy who you should expect to do 200 shows a year any more. WWE risks him getting injured and that hurting the bottom line. Remember, WWE is now part of TKO, a publicly owned company. The public markets want predictable income streams. Cena is a big name that can draw crowds, but house attendance numbers are harder to predict if he's hurt.
Cena has already gone Hollywood: Like The Rock and Bautista before him, Cena has been transitioning to becoming a Hollywood actor. So far his schedule has made it difficult for him to become a reliable TV presence. It's fair to call Cena a part-timer now. Part-timers are great for Wrestlemania but a part-timer is not the guy you want carrying the company during the rest of the year.
How Cena's Final Heel Run Can Work: If Cena is going to win at Wrestlemania and become a seventeen World Champion, he needs to be sure he protects himself physically, has a solid send off, and then transitions to a full-time Hollywood actor. A proper send off with Cena would likely entail a limited number of brutal matches but a lot of Netflix appearances where Cena relies on his considerable mic skills.
TKO is Hollywood: This is where WWE's holding company TKO becomes incredibly helpful. TKO is the holding company for both UFC and WWE and has a 12 billion dollar market cap. (We'll discuss whether this market cap makes sense in another post.) TKO CEO Ari Emanuel is a known Hollywood power broker and was the inspiration for Ari Gold from the Entourage TV series. His brother Rahm will likely be running for president soon. Ari Emanuel has the credibility to ensure Cena is happy and confident that he'll get good movie roles once he's done his last stint of duty in WWE. Cena likely wants roles that allow him to show his range as an actor. He'll be more likely to get those roles if he helps Ari Emanuel with one last favor.
